– Say commissioning of OB3 pipeline ‘watershed moment’
Lagos – Nigeria’s crude oil and condensate production will hover between 1.65 million barrels per day, mbd, and 1.80 mbd in the second quarter (April-June) of this year, according to projections by the Society of Energy Editors, SEE.
The projections are contained in the Society’s Second Quarter 2026 (Q2 2026) Nigeria Energy Sector Outlook released at the weekend.
The crude and condensate production is supported by a reliable deepwater output, the planned resumption of oil activities in Ogoniland as being pursued by the Nigerian government, and an imminent finalisation of Shell’s onshore exit deal, expected to enable the company taking over the Shell assets optimise their production.
On gas production, the Outlook described the recent successful commissioning of the Obiafu-Obrikom-Oben, OB3, gas pipeline as a “watershed moment,” noting that it has provided the national grid with east-west gas balancing capability for the first time.
The Outlook indicated that the coming of the gas pipeline has improved load factors for thermal power plants and reduced historical dependence on the western Niger Delta.
It, however, warned that the power sector’s persistent liquidity crisis has been exacerbated by the global price shock.
“Gas prices linked to international benchmarks have risen, while diesel costs for plant startup have spiked.
“Generation availability is projected at 3,500–5,200 megawatts, MW—constrained not by gas supply but by distribution companies or DisCos’ inability to settle market invoices at cost-reflective tariffs,” the Outlook reported.
The SEE noted that the global gas market has tightened due to the Srait of Hormuz closure and that the Nigeria LNG, NLNG, is maximising outpout, with feedgas prioritised.
It added, however, that this situation has created tensions between domestic power demand and lucrative export volumes.
Still highlighting on power development, the Outlook noted that Nigeria’s national grid collapsed twice in the first quarter of this year, leading to nationwide blackout and that the collapse was blamed on technical faults, including simultaneous tripping of 330KV transmission lines and inadequate maintenance.
In the second quarter, it expects the government to focus on consolidating reforms initiated in 2025, accelerating decentralisation through state-level regulation, and pushing for improved grid stability amidst persistent infrastructure and liquidity challenges.
“The government is targeting 6,000MW of generation and increased metering through initiatives like the Presidential Power Initiative (PPI) and World Bank-backed programmes,” the Oulook added..
