Mkpoikana Udoma
Abuja — The global oil market could face a crippling shortfall of 23 million barrels per day by 2030 if immediate and sustained investments in the upstream sector are not made, the Secretary General of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC, Haitham Al Ghais, warned on Tuesday.
Delivering an address virtually at the ongoing Nigeria Oil and Gas, NOG Energy Week 2025 in Abuja, Al Ghais raised the alarm over declining investment in oil-related infrastructure, saying it poses a real and imminent threat to global energy security and economic stability.
“OPEC research estimates a huge oil market deficit of about 23 million barrels per day by 2030 if investments in the global upstream industry stop today. This should be a wake-up call for policymakers and investors across the globe.”
He emphasized that to meet rising demand and avoid disruptions, the world will need to commit $17.4 trillion in cumulative oil-related investments between now and 2050, a figure that underpins the scale and urgency of the challenge.
According to Al Ghais, the projected demand is not speculative but grounded in hard demographic and economic realities. “Global primary energy demand is expected to grow by 23% between now and 2050,” he said, attributing the increase to rapid population growth, urbanization, and economic expansion in the developing world.
He noted that the world’s population is projected to climb from 8 billion to nearly 10 billion by 2050, with about 2 billion people moving into cities, equivalent to building 110 new cities the size of Lagos or 450 cities the size of Abuja.
“These trends will challenge energy infrastructure, but they also offer a chance to tackle energy poverty for the 675 million people who still lack access to electricity and the 2.3 billion without clean cooking fuels.”
Despite growing calls for energy transition, the OPEC chief insisted that hydrocarbons will continue to play a dominant role in the global energy landscape for decades.
“Oil will retain the largest share of the energy mix in 2050 at almost 30%, while oil and gas combined will still account for over 50%,” Al Ghais asserted.
He called on governments, institutions, and energy players to avoid politicizing the transition and instead embrace a balanced and inclusive approach that recognizes the diverse needs of both developing and developed economies.
“The global conversation is thankfully shifting back toward energy security and affordability, alongside emissions reduction. This is especially important for developing nations, many of which face energy poverty and limited access to finance. They must be allowed to utilize their natural resources to benefit their economies and their peoples.”
Al Ghais further emphasized the need for strategic partnerships and innovation in the oil and gas sector, noting that OPEC will continue to champion cooperation under its Declaration of Cooperation and Charter of Cooperation frameworks.
“Innovation fuels progress. OPEC member countries and national oil companies are investing in technologies that ensure cleaner, more secure, and more affordable energy solutions.”
The OPEC Secretary General concluded his remarks by inviting stakeholders to the 9th OPEC International Seminar in Vienna this July, where global energy leaders are expected to deepen conversations on sustainable energy investments and inclusive transition strategies.
