Mkpoikana Udoma
Port Harcourt — Nigeria’s oil and gas industry is undergoing a generational shift, with international oil companies, IOCs, gradually retreating from onshore operations while indigenous producers and deepwater projects emerge as the drivers of growth.
According to the Q4 2025 Nigeria Energy Sector Outlook released by the Society of Energy Editors, SEE, the transition presents both transformative opportunities and lingering risks that will shape Africa’s top crude exporter for years to come.
The report noted that Nigeria’s crude output has stabilised around 1.65 million barrels per day, bpd, and projected the Q4 production at between 1.62–1.70 million bpd. The upside, it stressed, depends heavily on confidence-building measures in Ogoniland and continued political stability in Rivers State.
“Nigeria’s oil industry is no longer defined by IOC dominance,” the Society of Energy Editors observed.
“The future will be led by indigenous players, deepwater investments, and how successfully the government manages community relations in the Niger Delta.”
Ogoni Dawn and Political Normalisation
A major highlight of the report is what it described as the “Ogoni Gateway.” The Tinubu administration’s conferment of honours on the “Ogoni 9” and “Ogoni 4” has created a pathway for reconciliation, while the Ledum Mitee–led panel provided a roadmap for resuming oil production after over three decades of suspension.
In Rivers State, the expiration of emergency rule on September 18 has restored democratic institutions, easing political tensions and offering investors a more predictable operating climate. Still, the Society warned that 50,000–80,000 bpd remain at risk from insecurity if excluded groups attempt disruptions.
IOCs Retreat, Indigenous Firms Advance
The Society highlighted, in the Q4 2025 Nigeria Energy Sector Outlook, that Shell’s onshore exit, first announced in 2021, remains bogged down by legal and regulatory hurdles. A Shell spokesperson reiterated: “Our strategy is clear—reduce onshore exposure and focus on deepwater, where Nigeria remains central to our future.”
Meanwhile, Seplat Energy is consolidating its role as Nigeria’s flagship indigenous producer after acquiring ExxonMobil’s shallow-water assets earlier this year.
“This acquisition is a national opportunity,” said Seplat CEO Roger Brown. “We intend to show that Nigerian companies can deliver world-class performance and community engagement.”
Deepwater as Nigeria’s Bright Spot
The SEE’s Q4 2025 report also identified deepwater projects as Nigeria’s strongest growth frontier.
The Bonga North, expected to add over 120,000 bpd, is on track for completion by December 2025, the report indicated.
Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Sen. Heineken Lokpobiri, described the project as proof of Nigeria’s competitiveness: “Bonga North demonstrates that with the right fiscal terms, Nigeria will continue to attract large-scale investment while balancing national interest with investor confidence.”
Community Relations: The Decisive Factor
The Society of Energy Editors warned that the success of the ongoing transition in the industry hinges on how indigenous firms manage host community expectations, stressing that without the diplomatic shields IOCs once enjoyed, local companies will face more direct demands.
Revised Key, Q4 Projections
According to the SEE Q4 2025 projections, Nigeria’s crude oil output is expected to hover between 1.62 million and 1.70 million barrels per day, only slightly above the third quarter average of 1.63 million barrels per day. The figures suggest cautious optimism, tied directly to progress in Ogoniland and the government’s ability to contain security risks in the Niger Delta.
On the macroeconomic front, SEE projects that inflation, which stood at 22.5 percent in Q3, is projected to climb to between 23 and 26 percent. Similarly, the Naira, which traded at around N1,490 to the dollar in Q3, faces renewed pressure and could weaken to between N1,500 and N1,650 per dollar if foreign exchange inflows falter.
Petrol prices remain the most volatile indicator, according to the report, It warned that while the regulated pump price averaged N1,050 per litre in Q3, a prolonged disruption at Dangote Refinery could push prices well beyond N1,200 per litre, especially if the subsidy regime collapses under the weight of import dependence.
The Society of Energy Editors said the Liquefied natural gas, LNG, exports offer one of the few bright spots, with shipments projected to edge up from 21.5 million tonnes per annum, MTPA, in Q3 to about 22 MTPA in the fourth quarter of the year, bolstered by steady global demand.
The Society concluded that Q4 2025 marks a turning point: With Seplat rising, Shell retreating, and deepwater expanding, Nigeria’s industry is firmly in transition. Yet, the success of this shift depends on diplomacy in Ogoniland, security in the Niger Delta, and the ability of indigenous firms to balance profit with community trust.
“The real test is whether this transition becomes a renaissance, or merely a reshuffling of old challenges under new management,” the Q4 2025 report stated.
