Tokyo/Singapore — Oil prices inched up on Monday as investors weighed the impact of fresh U.S. sanctions on Iranian exports against ceasefire talks aimed at ending the Russia-Ukraine war, which could lead to an increase in Russian supplies to global markets.
Brent crude futures gained 4 cents at $72.2 a barrel by 0735 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 8 cents, or 0.1%, to $68.36. Prices fell earlier in the day.
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Both benchmarks settled higher on Friday and recorded a second consecutive weekly gain as fresh U.S. sanctions on Iran and the latest output plan from the OPEC+ producer group raised expectations of tighter supply.
Market sentiment toward oil prices has improved recently, likely driven by a technical rebound from previous oversold conditions, heightened supply risks stemming from U.S. sanctions on Iranian exports and some optimism that U.S. reciprocal tariffs may be less severe than feared, IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong said.
Iranian oil shipments to China are set to fall in the near-term after new U.S. sanctions on a privately-owned refiner and tankers, driving up shipping costs, but traders said they expect buyers to find workarounds to keep at least some volume flowing.
“However, the broader demand-supply outlook still remains mixed. Ukraine-Russia ceasefire talks raise the prospects of increased Russian exports on an eventual resolution, while the OPEC+ production hike as early as April points to further supply additions,” added Yeap.
A U.S. delegation will seek progress toward a Black Sea ceasefire and a broader cessation of violence in the war in Ukraine when it meets for talks with Russian officials on Monday, after discussions with diplomats from Ukraine on Sunday.
“Expectations of progress in peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine and a potential easing of U.S. sanctions on Russian oil pressured prices lower,” said Toshitaka Tazawa, an analyst at Fujitomi Securities.
“But investors are holding back on large positions as they evaluate future OPEC+ production trends beyond April,” he added.
OPEC+ – the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia – on Thursday issued a new schedule for seven member nations to make further oil output cuts to compensate for pumping above agreed levels, which will more than overtake the monthly production hikes the group plans to introduce next month.
OPEC+ has been cutting output by 5.85 million barrels per day, equal to about 5.7% of global supply, agreed in a series of steps since 2022 to support the market.
It confirmed on March 3 that eight of its members would proceed with a monthly increase of 138,000 bpd from April, citing healthier market fundamentals.
*Yuka Obayashi & Trixie Yap; editing: Christopher Cushing & Christian Schmollinger – Reuters
