Oil steady as investors weigh hopes for Ukraine peace talks, Fed rate cut

The United States and Ukraine sought on Monday to narrow the gaps in a peace plan to end the Russian war in Ukraine after agreeing to modify a U.S. proposal that Kyiv and its European allies saw as too favourable to Moscow.

“The market is overwhelmingly focused on the macro view, which is this Ukraine peace treaty and the U.S. economy,” said Jorge Montepeque, managing director at Onyx Capital Group.

Analysts are awaiting more clarity on the talks between the U.S. and Ukraine.

U.S. sanctions on state-owned Rosneft and private firm Lukoil, which took effect on Friday, have caused friction that would normally send prices up, but the market is preoccupied by the peace deal, he added.

A peace deal could potentially lead to a rollback of sanctions that have dented Russian oil exports. Russia was the second-largest producer of crude oil in the world after the United States in 2024, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Uncertainty regarding U.S. interest rate cuts is another factor suppressing investors’ appetites.

However, the possibility of a rate cut next month increased after New York Federal Reserve President John Williams suggested a cut in the near term.

“Expectations of a potential Fed rate cut in December may also provide a counterbalance to bearish sentiment by improving global risk appetite,” said Sugandha Sachdeva, founder of SS WealthStreet, a New Delhi-based research firm.

“Crude prices have already declined nearly 17% this year, reflecting persistent negative sentiment … at these lower levels, value buying is expected to gradually emerge.”