London — OPEC on Tuesday raised its global oil demand forecast for next year and trimmed its estimate for growth in supply from the United States and other producers outside the wider OPEC+ group, pointing to a tighter market.
The outlook for higher demand and a drop in supply growth from outside OPEC+, which groups OPEC with Russia and other allies, would make it easier for OPEC+ to proceed with its plan to pump more barrels to regain market share after years of cuts aimed at supporting the market.
World oil demand will rise by 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said in a monthly report, up 100,000 bpd from the previous forecast. This year’s expectation was left unchanged.
The forecasts are at the higher end of the industry range, as the agency expects a slower energy transition than some other forecasters such as the International Energy Agency, which expects world demand to rise by just 700,000 bpd this year.
In the report, OPEC also increased its forecast for world economic growth slightly this year to 3.0% as U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration signs some trade deals and the economies of India, China and Brazil outperform expectations.
“Economic data at the start of the second half of 2025 further confirm the resilience of global growth, despite persistent uncertainties related to U.S.-centred trade tensions and broader geopolitical risks,” OPEC said.
Brent crude was steady after OPEC published the report, trading close to $66 a barrel. It reached a four-year low near $58 in April.
U.S. SHALE TO DROP IN 2026
The drop in oil prices this year, partly due to OPEC+ output hikes and concern about U.S. tariffs, has put pressure on the economics of U.S. shale output, analysts say.
OPEC+ sources have told Reuters that the group’s policy shift to raise output after years of supporting the market with cuts was driven partly to take on U.S. shale production.
OPEC’s report on Tuesday said U.S. output of tight oil, another term for shale, will decline by 100,000 bpd in 2026 versus last month’s outlook for flat output year-on-year.
“The 2026 forecast assumes sustained capital discipline, additional drilling and completion efficiency gains, weaker momentum in drilling activities and increased associated gas production in key shale oil regions,” OPEC said.
Overall oil supply from countries outside OPEC+ will rise by about 630,000 bpd in 2026, OPEC said, down from last month’s forecast of 730,000 bpd.
While the U.S. is still expected to be a driver of this growth, OPEC now expects U.S. total oil output to rise by about 130,000 bpd next year, against a January forecast of 510,000 bpd.
OPEC’s report also showed that in July, OPEC+ raised crude output by 335,000 bpd, slightly less than the 411,000 bpd hike called for by the group’s increase in its July quotas.
The IEA reports its latest forecasts on Wednesday.
Editing by Kirsten Donovan and Jan Harvey – Reuters
