Moscow — Russia’s tax proceeds on crude oil production in January 2026 could be the lowest in three years at 380 billion roubles ($4.72 billion), according to Reuters calculations.
That would be a 16% decline from this month and a 55% drop from January 2025.
Mineral extraction tax (MET) proceeds are due by the 28th of each month, reflecting the previous month’s oil output. They are core revenue for Russia’s budget.
Oil and gas revenue accounts for up to a quarter of Russia’s budget and is the most important source of cash for Moscow’s military campaign in Ukraine, now in its fourth year.
The decline in MET proceeds in January will be driven mainly by a 12% average fall in international oil prices compared to November, Reuters calculations showed.
Other factors contributing to the sharp fall in proceeds are a firmer rouble rate against the U.S. dollar in December and weaker prices for oil products.
The estimate for MET for crude oil produced in December uses data for December 1-18 and extrapolates it to the end of the month. The MET rate is based on a tax formula set by the government, which is based on factors such as oil prices and exchange rates and so the amount payable changes each month.
In December the tax rate will be approximately 14,266 roubles per tonne, which is 3,400 roubles per metric tonne (-19%) lower than the November figure and 17,000 roubles per tonne (-54%) lower than the December 2024 figure, Reuters calculations showed.
It will back at rates not seen since December 2022 (approximately 14,600 roubles per tonne), when EU states officially put an embargo on Russian oil.
($1 = 80.4500 roubles)
