London — Oil prices settled more than 2 percent lower on Friday as investors weighed a looming global supply glut, while also keeping an eye on a potential Ukraine peace deal ahead of talks this weekend between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and US President Donald Trump.
Brent crude futures settled down $1.60 or 2.57 percent to $60.64 per barrel. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled down $1.61 or 2.76 percent to $56.74.
While supply disruptions have helped oil prices rebound in recent sessions from their near five-year low on December 16, they are on track for their steepest annual decline since 2020. Brent and WTI are down 19 percent and 21 percent respectively on the year, as rising crude output caused concerns of an oil glut heading into next year.
“Geopolitical premiums have provided near-term price support, but have not materially shifted the underlying oversupply narrative,” Aegis Hedging analysts said in a note on Friday.
The global oil supply next year will exceed demand by 3.84 million barrels per day, according to figures from the Paris-based IEA’s December oil market report.
While supply disruptions have helped oil prices rebound in recent sessions from their near five-year low on December 16, they are on track for their steepest annual decline since 2020. Brent and WTI are down 19 percent and 21 percent respectively on the year, as rising crude output caused concerns of an oil glut heading into next year.
“Geopolitical premiums have provided near-term price support, but have not materially shifted the underlying oversupply narrative,” Aegis Hedging analysts said in a note on Friday.
The global oil supply next year will exceed demand by 3.84 million barrels per day, according to figures from the Paris-based IEA’s December oil market report.
For the oil price, “the negatives remain of elevated global oil storage, and slight progress on Ukraine-Russia peace talks,” said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial.
The White House also ordered its military forces to focus on a “quarantine” of Venezuelan oil for at least the next two months, indicating Washington is currently more interested in using economic rather than military means to pressure Caracas.
“The global impact to crude prices looks minimal at this time,” Kissler said of US actions to intercept sanctioned oil tankers leaving and entering Venezuela.
Despite headline risk pertaining to Venezuela, the broader market remains focused on the growing global surplus, according to Aegis Hedging analysts.
