Lagos — As the impact of Hurricane Ida continues to weigh on world oil market supplies, the organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and partners, OPEC in its new report has revised down non-OPEC liquids supply growth in 2021 by 0.17 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment.
The group’s September oil market report said the downward review was not only due an adjustment of 0.5 mb/d from 3Q21, but also mainly due to outages in North America from a fire on a Mexico’s offshore platform and the disruptions caused by the current hurricane.
The estimate for North Sea production has also been revised down due to lower-than-expected output in 3Q21, resulting in an annual growth forecast of 0.9 mb/d to average 63.8 mb/d.
The main drivers for 2021 supply growth remain to be Canada, Russia, China, the US, Brazil and Norway, with the US expected to see year-on-year growth of only 0.08 mb/d.
The non-OPEC supply growth forecast for 2022 is unchanged at 2.9 mb/d, amid offsetting revisions, to average 66.8 mb/d.
The main drivers of liquids supply growth are Russia and the US, followed by Brazil, Norway, Canada, Kazakhstan, Guyana and other countries in the Declaration of Corporation.
OPEC natural gas liquids are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d in both 2021 and 2022 to average 5.2 mb/d and 5.3 mb/d, respectively. OPEC crude oil production in August increased by 0.15 mb/d m-o-m, to average 26.76 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.
While non-OPEC supplies were revised down, OPEC said demand for its members’ crude in 2021 will grow by 0.3 mb/d from last month’s assessment to stand at 27.7 mb/d, representing an increase of 4.9 mb/d over the previous year.
Demand for OPEC crude in 2022 is revised up by 1.1 mb/d to stand at 28.7 mb/d, around 1.1 mb/d higher than in 2021.