Lagos — QatarEnergy has suspended LNG production at the world’s largest export facility following military attacks, significantly escalating the crisis. As a result, European gas prices have surged 48% since Friday, according to the ICIS TTF front-month benchmark.
On Monday morning, the ICIS TTF Early Day assessment for April 2026 stood at $13.94/MMBtu, up 26% from the previous close, before climbing a further 20% in volatile trading after confirmation of the production halt.
Meanwhile, no LNG vessels have transited the Strait of Hormuz since Saturday, effectively cutting off around 20% of global LNG supply. Although there is no formal blockade, tankers remain anchored due to heightened security and insurance risks, intensifying supply concerns.
Oil markets have also reacted, with Brent crude rising more than 10%. However, prices do not yet reflect a full structural supply shock, given the previously well-supplied global oil market.
Europe imports a relatively small share of its LNG directly from Qatar, but Asia’s dependence is much greater. This is likely to increase competition for flexible LNG cargoes and drive global prices higher. European storage levels, at 30% at the start of February, add to vulnerability ahead of the summer refill season. If disruption persists into the second quarter, further upside in gas and potentially oil prices remains possible, particularly if shipping disruptions and insurance constraints continue to limit flows.
Key highlighted points:
– QatarEnergy halts LNG production at the world’s largest plant
– European gas prices up 48% from Friday levels
– TTF April ’26 assessed at $13.94/MMBtu, rising sharply after production halt
– No LNG vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz
– Around 20% of global LNG supply effectively cut off
– Oil up over 10% but not yet pricing full structural supply loss
– Low European storage increases exposure to prolonged disruption
