Moscow/London — OPEC+ is leaning towards a resumption in oil output increases from April, three OPEC+ sources said, as the group prepares for peak summer demand and price strength is bolstered by tensions over U.S.-Iran relations.
The resumption would allow OPEC leader Saudi Arabia and fellow members, such as the UAE, to regain market share at a time other OPEC+ members, such as Russia and Iran, contend with Western sanctions and Kazakh output is restrained by a series of setbacks.
Eight OPEC+ producers – Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria and Oman – meet on March 1.
BRENT CRUDE CLOSE TO SIX-MONTH HIGH
The eight members raised production quotas by about 2.9 million barrels per day from April to the end of December 2025, equating to about 3% of global demand, and froze further planned increases for January through March 2026 because of seasonally weaker consumption.
The Brent crude benchmark is trading near $68 a barrel despite speculation that a supply glut would suppress prices this year. That’s not far from a six-month high of $71.89 hit in January on tensions between the United States and Iran.
All three OPEC+ sources, who declined to be identified by name, said the eight members at the March 1 meeting were leaning towards a resumption in production quota increases from April. Three other sources familiar with OPEC+ thinking said they expected increases to resume in April.
No decision has yet been made and talks will continue in the weeks ahead of the March 1 meeting, two of the OPEC+ sources said.
OPEC and authorities in Russia and Saudi Arabia did not reply immediately to requests for comment.
SEASONAL DEMAND
OPEC’s latest oil market forecasts show demand for OPEC+ crude in the second quarter falling by 400,000 bpd from the first three months of the year, but demand for the whole year is projected to be 600,000 bpd higher than in 2025.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, asked whether OPEC+ production increases would resume, told reporters last week that delegates expected demand to rise in the spring.
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“Starting from around March and April, demand is gradually increasing. This will be an additional factor to ensure the balance,” he said.
The International Energy Agency this week lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth this year to 850,000 bpd, though this is still higher than last year’s growth of 770,000 bpd.
OPEC+, which comprises the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus Russia and other allies, pumps about half of the world’s oil.
Reporting by Olesya Astakhova in Moscow and Alex Lawler and Ahmad Ghaddar in London Writing by Alex Lawler Editing by Dmitry Zhdannikov and David Goodman – Reuters
